Illawarra Hawks vs Cairns Taipans prediction
Illawarra Hawks
27
23
27
23
Cairns Taipans
28
29
29
24
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 76%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Illawarra Hawks10098Cairns Taipans11096Illawarra Hawks10098Cairns Taipans11096Total 194 Margin ILL by 2 Win ILL 54% Actual 210 · CAI won
Illawarra Hawks
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Cairns Taipans
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
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Shooting
Illawarra Hawks vs Cairns Taipans
Illawarra Hawks
Cairns Taipans
Last 11 games each with full stats · all competitions
Illawarra Hawks at home, last 5 games · Cairns Taipans away, last 7
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Illawarra Hawks 2, Cairns Taipans 1.
- Average total 180.0 points per meeting
- Over 194.5 1 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting ILL by 18 Jan 3, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 3, 2026 NBL Illawarra Hawks 96–78 Cairns Taipans 174 pts
- Dec 6, 2025 NBL Illawarra Hawks 76–93 Cairns Taipans 169 pts
- Nov 7, 2025 NBL Cairns Taipans 90–107 Illawarra Hawks 197 pts
Last five games
Illawarra Hawks
1-4 - Oct 9: Illawarra Hawks 112, Tasmania JackJumpers 122. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 1.68, Tasmania JackJumpers 2.10.
- Oct 4: South East Melbourne 113, Illawarra Hawks 96. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.60, Illawarra Hawks 2.27.
- Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Won. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
- Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.
- Sep 25: Brisbane Bullets 103, Illawarra Hawks 95. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.90, Illawarra Hawks 1.85.
Cairns Taipans
3-2 - Oct 8: Cairns Taipans 97, Brisbane Bullets 91. Won. Odds: Cairns Taipans 1.60, Brisbane Bullets 2.25.
- Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
- Sep 30: New Zealand Breakers 98, Cairns Taipans 75. Lost. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 1.51, Cairns Taipans 2.48.
- Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
- Sep 23: Cairns Taipans 93, Tasmania JackJumpers 87. Won. Odds: Cairns Taipans 1.76, Tasmania JackJumpers 2.04.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Illawarra Hawks dropped from 1.95 to 1.74 since they were first published.
- 1-4 at home for Illawarra Hawks this season.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Illawarra Hawks.
- 1-4 in the last five for Illawarra Hawks.
- 180.0 points per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 194.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ILL moneyline | 1.95 | moved down 1.74 |
| CAI moneyline | 1.80 | moved up 2.05 |
| Total points | 195.5 | moved down 194.5 |
| ILL spread | +1.5 | moved down −2.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 | Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Illawarra Hawks host Cairns Taipans in the NBL on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.