Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide prediction
Illawarra Hawks
35
30
27
22
Adelaide
21
14
32
25
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 72%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Illawarra Hawks11497Adelaide9296Illawarra Hawks11497Adelaide9296Total 193 Margin ILL by 1 Win ILL 54% Actual 206 · ILL won
Illawarra Hawks
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Adelaide
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide
Illawarra Hawks
Adelaide
Last 11 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
Illawarra Hawks at home, last 5 games · Adelaide away, last 7
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Illawarra Hawks 1, Adelaide 3.
- Average total 180.3 points per meeting
- Over 188.5 1 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting ILL by 1 Feb 5, 2026
Meetings
- Feb 5, 2026 NBL Illawarra Hawks 100–99 Adelaide 199 pts
- Dec 20, 2025 NBL Illawarra Hawks 78–84 Adelaide 162 pts
- Nov 19, 2025 NBL Adelaide 97–85 Illawarra Hawks 182 pts
- Nov 2, 2025 NBL Adelaide 90–88 Illawarra Hawks 178 pts
Last five games
Illawarra Hawks
2-3 - Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.
- Sep 25: Brisbane Bullets 103, Illawarra Hawks 95. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.90, Illawarra Hawks 1.85.
- Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Lost. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
- Feb 18: Tasmania JackJumpers 70, Illawarra Hawks 103. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Melbourne United 91, Illawarra Hawks 100. Won. No odds on record.
Adelaide
3-2 - Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
- Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.
- Apr 5: Sydney 113, Adelaide 101. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 1: Adelaide 92, Sydney 91. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Illawarra Hawks coming into this game.
- 1-4 at home for Illawarra Hawks this season.
- Over/under moved up from 186.5 to 188.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 7.0 — Illawarra Hawks −10.0 per 100 possessions, Adelaide −3.0.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Adelaide.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ILL moneyline | 2.68 | moved up 2.85 |
| ADE moneyline | 1.45 | moved down 1.40 |
| Total points | 186.5 | moved up 188.5 |
| ILL spread · regulation | +5.5 | +5.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 | Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Illawarra Hawks host Adelaide in the NBL on Friday, October 2, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.