Freseros vs Dorados Prediction & Odds — Oct 6

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LNBP Tuesday, October 6, 2026Tue, Oct 6 Start22:00ET

FreserosHome · 9-19 · 13th · 2.20

8518192226

DoradosAway · 17-11 · 6th · 1.57

10529252724

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Freseros 18 19 22 26

Dorados 29 25 27 24

FT Inforum Irapuato · MexicoInforum Irapuato

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

DOR +4.5 1.36 81%

Dorados +4.5 on the spread edge −0.5%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won DOR +4.5 1.36 Dorados +4.5 on the spread Confidence81% model 72.2% · market 72.7% edge −0.5%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 71%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 1.57 61.7% 61.5% +0.2% 66% Won

Total points U180.5 1.40 74.7% 65.4% +9.3% 65% Lost

Point spread DOR +4.5 1.36 72.2% 72.7% −0.5% 81% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Freseros8582

Dorados10586

Total 168 actual 190

Winning margin DOR by 4 actual DOR by 20

Chance to win DOR 62% DOR won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Freseros8582

Dorados10586

Total 168 Margin DOR by 4 Win DOR 62% Actual 190 · DOR won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Freseros large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Dorados

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Freseros vs Dorados

Freseros Dorados

Last 26 and 30 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Freseros 1-4

Oct 2: Santos 108, Freseros 87. Lost. Odds: Santos 1.55, Freseros 2.25.
Oct 1: Santos 96, Freseros 81. Lost. Odds: Santos 1.57, Freseros 2.25.
Sep 26: Freseros 88, Panteras 97. Lost. Odds: Freseros 1.95, Panteras 1.72.
Sep 25: Freseros 87, Panteras 94. Lost. Odds: Freseros 2.52, Panteras 1.47.
Sep 21: Abejas 57, Freseros 63. Won. Odds: Abejas 1.42, Freseros 2.65.

Dorados 2-3

Oct 2: Panteras 81, Dorados 83. Won. Odds: Panteras 1.39, Dorados 2.75.
Oct 1: Panteras 91, Dorados 85. Lost. Odds: Panteras 1.72, Dorados 2.00.
Sep 26: Dorados 64, Soles 97. Lost. Odds: Dorados 2.65, Soles 1.40.
Sep 25: Dorados 81, Soles 98. Lost. Odds: Dorados 1.98, Soles 1.75.
Sep 20: Astros 77, Dorados 79. Won. Odds: Astros 1.15, Dorados 4.75.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
FRE moneyline	2.12	moved up 2.20
DOR moneyline	1.65	moved down 1.57
Total points	173.5	moved down 171.5
FRE spread	+3.5	moved down +2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

LNBP standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Soles	28	21	7	49	2382	2090	+292
2	Astros	28	20	8	48	2473	2246	+227
3	Fuerza Regia	28	19	9	47	2512	2381	+131
4	Panteras	28	19	9	47	2477	2379	+98
5	Lobos Plateados	28	18	10	46	2366	2251	+115
6	Dorados	28	17	11	45	2409	2368	+41
7	Mineros	28	15	13	43	2411	2371	+40
8	Abejas	28	12	16	40	2389	2392	−3
9	Diablos Rojos	28	11	17	39	2293	2370	−77
10	Gambusinos	28	11	17	39	2233	2327	−94
11	Santos	28	11	17	39	2367	2497	−130
12	El Calor de Cancun	28	9	19	37	2276	2384	−108
13	Freseros	28	9	19	37	2379	2586	−207
14	Correcaminos	28	4	24	32	2309	2634	−325

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Freseros host Dorados in the LNBP on Tuesday, October 6, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.