FC Porto vs Benfica Prediction & Odds — Oct 11

Skip to content

2 Live NBA & basketball picks from a data model, live odds and public resultsNBA picks from a data model

21+

Sign up

LPB Sunday, October 11, 2026Sun, Oct 11 Start10:00ET Round 2

FC PortoHome · 4-1 · 2nd · 1.75

9316243221

BenficaAway · 4-1 · 3rd · 1.95

8626192714

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

FC Porto 16 24 32 21

Benfica 26 19 27 14

FT Pavilhão Dragão Arena · PortugalPavilhão Dragão Arena · Round 2

Best tip of the game

Total points Won

O158.5 1.39 79%

Over 158.5 points edge +6.5%

Best tip of the game Total points · Won O158.5 1.39 Over 158.5 points Confidence79% model 72.3% · market 65.8% edge +6.5%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 65%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.62 56.0% 51.4% +4.6% 55% Won

Total points O158.5 1.39 72.3% 65.8% +6.5% 79% Won

Point spread POR +2.5 1.58 61.7% 57.2% +4.5% 60% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

FC Porto9386

Benfica8683

Total 169 actual 179

Winning margin POR by 3 actual POR by 7

Chance to win POR 56% POR won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

FC Porto9386

Benfica8683

Total 169 Margin POR by 3 Win POR 56% Actual 179 · POR won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

FC Porto large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Benfica

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Other

Shooting

FC Porto vs Benfica

FC Porto Benfica

Last 8 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

FC Porto 4-1

Oct 7: Bonn 78, FC Porto 74. Lost. Odds: Bonn 1.25, FC Porto 3.70.
Oct 2: CA Queluz 93, FC Porto 110. Won. Odds: CA Queluz 7.00, FC Porto 1.06.
Sep 26: FC Porto 80, Sporting CP 76. Won. Odds: FC Porto 1.44, Sporting CP 2.64.
Jun 14: FC Porto 75, Benfica 71. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 12: FC Porto 87, Benfica 63. Won. No odds on record.

Benfica 3-2

Oct 7: Bakken Bears 81, Benfica 91. Won. Odds: Bakken Bears 1.97, Benfica 1.78.
Oct 3: Benfica 84, Sporting CP 71. Won. Odds: Benfica 1.10, Sporting CP 5.20.
Sep 17: Benfica 88, Vechta 98. Lost. Odds: Benfica 2.84, Vechta 1.40.
Sep 15: Benfica 87, Geneva Lions 78. Won. Odds: Benfica 1.14, Geneva Lions 5.05.
Jun 14: FC Porto 75, Benfica 71. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
POR moneyline	1.40	moved up 1.75
BEN moneyline	2.75	moved down 1.95
Total points	164.5	moved up 167.5
POR spread	−1.5	−1.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

LPB standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Ovarense	5	4	1	9	409	370	+39
2	FC Porto	5	4	1	9	467	430	+37
3	Benfica	5	4	1	9	437	375	+62
4	Braga	5	4	1	9	457	396	+61
5	Oliveirense	4	3	1	7	375	363	+12
6	Sporting CP	5	2	3	7	400	405	−5
7	Vitoria	4	2	2	6	300	328	−28
8	CD Povoa	4	2	2	6	297	291	+6
9	CAB Madeira	5	1	4	6	431	446	−15
10	CA Queluz	4	2	2	6	356	375	−19
11	Portimonense	5	0	5	5	380	443	−63
12	Esgueira	5	0	5	5	388	475	−87

Quarter-finals
Relegation - Proliga

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

FC Porto host Benfica in the LPB on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.