Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz Prediction & Odds — Oct 4

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NBA Sunday, October 4, 2026Sun, Oct 4 Start19:00ET

Denver NuggetsHome · 3-2 · 8th · 1.55

9726262520

Utah JazzAway · 1-5 · 2nd · 2.50

10936272521

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Denver Nuggets 26 26 25 20

Utah Jazz 36 27 25 21

FT Ball Arena · USABall Arena

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Won

1 1.55 89%

Denver Nuggets to win edge +11.5%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Won 1 1.55 Denver Nuggets to win Confidence89% model 74.2% · market 62.7% edge +11.5%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 89%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.55 74.2% 62.7% +11.5% 89% Won

Total points O224.5 1.25 85.5% 74.2% +11.3% 89% Lost

Point spread DEN +4.5 1.39 81.8% 73.1% +8.7% 89% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Denver Nuggets97129

Utah Jazz109117

Total 246 actual 206

Winning margin DEN by 12 actual UTA by 12

Chance to win DEN 74% UTA won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Denver Nuggets97129

Utah Jazz109117

Total 246 Margin DEN by 12 Win DEN 74% Actual 206 · UTA won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Denver Nuggets large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Utah Jazz

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Other

Shooting

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz

Denver Nuggets Utah Jazz

Last 5 and 6 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Denver Nuggets 1-4

Apr 30: Minnesota Timberwolves 110, Denver Nuggets 98. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 27: Denver Nuggets 125, Minnesota Timberwolves 113. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 25: Minnesota Timberwolves 112, Denver Nuggets 96. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 23: Minnesota Timberwolves 113, Denver Nuggets 96. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 20: Denver Nuggets 114, Minnesota Timberwolves 119. Lost. No odds on record.

Utah Jazz 1-4

Apr 12: Los Angeles Lakers 131, Utah Jazz 107. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 10: Utah Jazz 147, Memphis Grizzlies 101. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 7: New Orleans Pelicans 156, Utah Jazz 137. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 5: Oklahoma City Thunder 146, Utah Jazz 111. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 3: Houston Rockets 140, Utah Jazz 106. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
DEN moneyline	1.55	1.55
UTA moneyline	2.40	moved up 2.50
Total points	237.5	237.5
DEN spread	−4.5	moved up −3.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBA standings

Pre-season · Western Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Memphis Grizzlies	4	3	1	.750	470	443	+27
2	Utah Jazz	4	3	1	.750	453	439	+14
3	New Orleans Pelicans	4	3	1	.750	442	441	+1
4	Golden State Warriors	6	4	2	.667	683	638	+45
5	Houston Rockets	3	2	1	.667	366	338	+28
6	Portland Trail Blazers	3	2	1	.667	351	344	+7
7	Los Angeles Clippers	3	2	1	.667	332	325	+7
8	Denver Nuggets	5	3	2	.600	578	571	+7
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	6	3	3	.500	697	709	−12
10	San Antonio Spurs	5	2	3	.400	572	544	+28
11	Los Angeles Lakers	5	2	3	.400	534	559	−25
12	Dallas Mavericks	4	1	3	.250	457	486	−29
13	Phoenix Suns	5	1	4	.200	545	573	−28
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	5	1	4	.200	549	585	−36
15	Sacramento Kings	5	0	5	.000	514	588	−74

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Denver Nuggets host Utah Jazz in the NBA on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.