Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
Dallas Mavericks
33
32
29
26
Oklahoma City Thunder
30
29
22
15
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 85%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Dallas Mavericks120108Oklahoma City Thunder96120Dallas Mavericks120108Oklahoma City Thunder96120Total 228 Margin OKC by 12 Win OKC 79% Actual 216 · DAL won
Dallas Mavericks
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Oklahoma City Thunder
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
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Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Dallas Mavericks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last 6 games each with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Dallas Mavericks 1, Oklahoma City Thunder 3.
- Average total 205.0 points per meeting
- Over 228.5 1 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting OKC by 13 Mar 1, 2026
Meetings
- Mar 1, 2026 NBA Dallas Mavericks 87–100 Oklahoma City Thunder 187 pts
- Dec 5, 2025 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder 132–111 Dallas Mavericks 243 pts
- Oct 27, 2025 NBA Dallas Mavericks 94–101 Oklahoma City Thunder 195 pts
- Oct 6, 2025 NBA Dallas Mavericks 106–89 Oklahoma City Thunder 195 pts
Last five games
Dallas Mavericks
2-3 - Oct 26: Miami Heat 109, Dallas Mavericks 113. Won. Odds: Miami Heat 1.36, Dallas Mavericks 3.25.
- Oct 24: Dallas Mavericks 106, San Antonio Spurs 122. Lost. Odds: Dallas Mavericks 7.00, San Antonio Spurs 1.11.
- Oct 23: Indiana Pacers 105, Dallas Mavericks 121. Won. Odds: Indiana Pacers 1.38, Dallas Mavericks 3.15.
- Oct 21: Houston Rockets 128, Dallas Mavericks 110. Lost. Odds: Houston Rockets 1.23, Dallas Mavericks 4.40.
- Oct 16: Dallas Mavericks 111, Atlanta Hawks 135. Lost. Odds: Dallas Mavericks 1.81, Atlanta Hawks 1.89.
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 - Oct 26: Oklahoma City Thunder 125, Phoenix Suns 114. Won. Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder 1.30, Phoenix Suns 3.65.
- Oct 25: Oklahoma City Thunder 108, Los Angeles Clippers 101. Won. Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder 1.07, Los Angeles Clippers 9.50.
- Oct 22: Oklahoma City Thunder 96, Denver Nuggets 84. Won. Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder 1.30, Denver Nuggets 3.65.
- Oct 20: San Antonio Spurs 104, Oklahoma City Thunder 116. Won. Odds: San Antonio Spurs 1.97, Oklahoma City Thunder 1.85.
- Oct 15: Houston Rockets 116, Oklahoma City Thunder 89. Lost. Odds: Houston Rockets 2.11, Oklahoma City Thunder 1.68.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Oklahoma City Thunder coming into this game.
- 1-4 at home for Dallas Mavericks this season.
- Over/under moved down from 231.5 to 228.5 since it was first published.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Oklahoma City Thunder.
- −10.4 points away — Oklahoma City Thunder averaged 113.2 at home and 102.8 away this season.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| DAL moneyline | 2.65 | moved down 2.60 |
| OKC moneyline | 1.42 | moved up 1.53 |
| Total points | 231.5 | moved down 228.5 |
| DAL spread | +5.5 | moved down +4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBA standings
Pre-season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memphis Grizzlies |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 470 | 443 | +27 |
| 2 |  Utah Jazz |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 453 | 439 | +14 |
| 3 |  New Orleans Pelicans |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 442 | 441 | +1 |
| 4 |  Golden State Warriors |
6 | 4 | 2 | .667 | 683 | 638 | +45 |
| 5 |  Houston Rockets |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 366 | 338 | +28 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 351 | 344 | +7 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Clippers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 332 | 325 | +7 |
| 8 |  Denver Nuggets |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 578 | 571 | +7 |
| 9 |  Minnesota Timberwolves |
6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 697 | 709 | −12 |
| 10 |  San Antonio Spurs |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 572 | 544 | +28 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Lakers |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 534 | 559 | −25 |
| 12 | Dallas Mavericks |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 457 | 486 | −29 |
| 13 |  Phoenix Suns |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 545 | 573 | −28 |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 549 | 585 | −36 |
| 15 |  Sacramento Kings |
5 | 0 | 5 | .000 | 514 | 588 | −74 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Dallas Mavericks host Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.