China vs Iran prediction
China
17
14
15
24
Iran
12
17
26
24
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 56%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
China7076Iran7974China7076Iran7974Total 150 Margin CHI by 2 Win CHI 54% Actual 149 · IRA won
China vs Iran
China
Iran
Last five games
China
4-1 - Sep 18: Japan 97, China 78. Lost. Odds: Japan 3.80, China 1.22.
- Sep 16: China 87, Saudi Arabia 78. Won. Odds: China –, Saudi Arabia 17.00.
- Sep 14: China 105, Philippines 61. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 12: Bahrain 59, China 105. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 10: China 99, Kazakhstan 61. Won. No odds on record.
Iran
3-2 - Sep 18: South Korea 77, Iran 51. Lost. Odds: South Korea 1.11, Iran 5.50.
- Sep 16: Iran 79, Bahrain 74. Won. Odds: Iran 1.37, Bahrain 2.85.
- Sep 12: Iran 81, Jordan 68. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 11: Chinese Taipei 69, Iran 72. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 9: Iran 53, Qatar 59. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on China dropped from 1.14 to 1.06 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 152.5 to 154.5 since it was first published.
- 4-1 in the last five for China.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| CHI moneyline | 1.14 | moved down 1.06 |
| IRA moneyline | 4.63 | moved up 7.40 |
| Total points | 152.5 | moved up 154.5 |
| CHI spread | −14.5 | moved down −16.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Asian Games standings
Regular Season · Group C
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China |
3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 309 | 181 | +128 |
| 2 |  Bahrain |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 249 | 268 | −19 |
| 3 |  Philippines |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 255 | 272 | −17 |
| 4 |  Kazakhstan |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 217 | 309 | −92 |
Regular Season · Group B
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chinese Taipei |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 243 | 221 | +22 |
| 2 | Iran |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 206 | 196 | +10 |
| 3 |  Jordan |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 224 | 229 | −5 |
| 4 |  Qatar |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 193 | 220 | −27 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Ranking of third-placed teams
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
China host Iran in the Asian Games on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.