Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat prediction


All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 74%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Total 229 Margin CHA by 1 Win CHA 54% Actual 225 · CHA won
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
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Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat
Last 7 and 6 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Charlotte Hornets 2, Miami Heat 3.
- Average total 247.6 points per meeting
- Over 228.5 5 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting CHA by 1 Apr 14, 2026
Meetings
- Apr 14, 2026 NBA Charlotte Hornets 127–126 OT Miami Heat 253 pts · OT
- Mar 17, 2026 NBA Charlotte Hornets 136–106 Miami Heat 242 pts
- Mar 6, 2026 NBA Charlotte Hornets 120–128 Miami Heat 248 pts
- Nov 7, 2025 NBA Miami Heat 126–108 Charlotte Hornets 234 pts
- Oct 28, 2025 NBA Miami Heat 144–117 Charlotte Hornets 261 pts
Last five games
- Oct 23: Charlotte Hornets 81, Atlanta Hawks 128. Lost. Odds: Charlotte Hornets 2.15, Atlanta Hawks 1.74.
- Oct 21: Brooklyn Nets 103, Charlotte Hornets 110. Won. Odds: Brooklyn Nets 1.83, Charlotte Hornets 1.83.
- Oct 16: Memphis Grizzlies 116, Charlotte Hornets 98. Lost. Odds: Memphis Grizzlies 1.69, Charlotte Hornets 2.04.
- Oct 14: Boston Celtics 114, Charlotte Hornets 93. Lost. Odds: Boston Celtics 1.32, Charlotte Hornets 3.24.
- Oct 11: Charlotte Hornets 105, Milwaukee Bucks 90. Won. Odds: Charlotte Hornets 1.63, Milwaukee Bucks 2.13.
- Oct 23: Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 2.04, Detroit Pistons 1.81.
- Oct 21: Miami Heat 106, Minnesota Timberwolves 131. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 1.72, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.98.
- Oct 16: Orlando Magic 136, Miami Heat 115. Lost. Odds: Orlando Magic 1.28, Miami Heat 2.95.
- Oct 14: Miami Heat 144, Brooklyn Nets 128. Won. Odds: Miami Heat 1.56, Brooklyn Nets 2.31.
- Oct 10: Miami Heat 124, Minnesota Timberwolves 125. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 2.10, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.55.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Miami Heat coming into this game.
- Over/under moved down from 232.5 to 228.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 6.3 — Charlotte Hornets −8.1 per 100 possessions, Miami Heat −1.8.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Miami Heat.
- +7.0 points at home — Charlotte Hornets averaged 100.8 at home and 93.8 away this season.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| CHA moneyline | 2.30 | moved up 2.39 |
| MIA moneyline | 1.62 | moved down 1.61 |
| Total points | 232.5 | moved down 228.5 |
| CHA spread | +3.5 | +3.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBA standings
Pre-season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 507 | 432 | +75 | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 613 | 586 | +27 | |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 497 | 464 | +33 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 495 | 468 | +27 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 474 | 452 | +22 | |
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 610 | 574 | +36 | |
| 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 640 | 612 | +28 | |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 453 | 455 | −2 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 612 | 584 | +28 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 547 | 599 | −52 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 348 | 361 | −13 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 479 | 473 | +6 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 454 | 480 | −26 | |
| 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 386 | 444 | −58 | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 530 | 621 | −91 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Charlotte Hornets host Miami Heat in the NBA on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.