Brisbane Bullets vs New Zealand Breakers prediction
Brisbane Bullets
19
18
28
23
New Zealand Breakers
26
18
19
22
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 71%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Brisbane Bullets8883New Zealand Breakers8598Brisbane Bullets8883New Zealand Breakers8598Total 181 Margin NZB by 15 Win NZB 84% Actual 173 · BRI won
Brisbane Bullets
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New Zealand Breakers
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Brisbane Bullets vs New Zealand Breakers
Brisbane Bullets
New Zealand Breakers
Last 10 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
Brisbane Bullets at home, last 5 games · New Zealand Breakers away, last 8
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Brisbane Bullets 3, New Zealand Breakers 1.
- Average total 186.8 points per meeting
- Over 188.5 2 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting BRI by 14 Dec 22, 2025
Meetings
- Dec 22, 2025 NBL Brisbane Bullets 99–85 New Zealand Breakers 184 pts
- Nov 12, 2025 NBL Brisbane Bullets 84–113 New Zealand Breakers 197 pts
- Oct 23, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 83–84 Brisbane Bullets 167 pts
- Sep 19, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 95–104 Brisbane Bullets 199 pts
Last five games
Brisbane Bullets
0-5 - Feb 20: Brisbane Bullets 77, Sydney 117. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 13: Perth 94, Brisbane Bullets 75. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 8: Brisbane Bullets 72, Cairns Taipans 81. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 6: Tasmania JackJumpers 114, Brisbane Bullets 70. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jan 28: Brisbane Bullets 74, Adelaide 107. Lost. No odds on record.
New Zealand Breakers
4-1 - Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
- Feb 22: Adelaide 107, New Zealand Breakers 111. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 19: New Zealand Breakers 115, Cairns Taipans 84. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Adelaide 92, New Zealand Breakers 89. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 7: New Zealand Breakers 106, Illawarra Hawks 95. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 10+ straight losses for Brisbane Bullets coming into this game.
- 3-game winning streak for New Zealand Breakers coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on New Zealand Breakers dropped from 2.25 to 1.81 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 185.5 to 188.5 since it was first published.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Brisbane Bullets.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| BRI moneyline | 1.58 | moved up 1.97 |
| NZB moneyline | 2.25 | moved down 1.81 |
| Total points | 185.5 | moved up 188.5 |
| BRI spread · regulation | −3.5 | moved up −1.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 | Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Brisbane Bullets host New Zealand Breakers in the NBL on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.