Benfica vs Sporting CP prediction
Benfica
19
19
19
27
Sporting CP
19
22
13
17
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 69%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Benfica8485Sporting CP7182Benfica8485Sporting CP7182Total 167 Margin BEN by 3 Win BEN 56% Actual 155 · BEN won
Benfica
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Sporting CP
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Other
Shooting
Benfica vs Sporting CP
Benfica
Sporting CP
Last 11 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
Benfica at home, last 6 games · Sporting CP away, last 6
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Benfica 1, Sporting CP 1.
- Average total 167.0 points per meeting
- Over 168.5 1 of 2 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SPO by 9 Jan 31, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 31, 2026 LPB Benfica 78–87 Sporting CP 165 pts
- Oct 12, 2025 LPB Sporting CP 66–103 Benfica 169 pts
Last five games
Benfica
1-4 - Sep 17: Benfica 88, Vechta 98. Lost. Odds: Benfica 2.84, Vechta 1.40.
- Sep 15: Benfica 87, Geneva Lions 78. Won. Odds: Benfica 1.14, Geneva Lions 5.05.
- Jun 14: FC Porto 75, Benfica 71. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jun 12: FC Porto 87, Benfica 63. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jun 9: Benfica 98, FC Porto 102. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
Sporting CP
1-4 - Sep 26: FC Porto 80, Sporting CP 76. Lost. Odds: FC Porto 1.44, Sporting CP 2.64.
- May 31: FC Porto 94, Sporting CP 86. Lost. No odds on record.
- May 29: FC Porto 86, Sporting CP 76. Lost. No odds on record.
- May 25: Sporting CP 88, FC Porto 73. Won. No odds on record.
- May 23: Sporting CP 70, FC Porto 81. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Sporting CP coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Benfica dropped from 1.20 to 1.10 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 165.5 to 168.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 8.8 — Benfica +10.3 per 100 possessions, Sporting CP +1.5.
- 1-4 in the last five for Benfica.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| BEN moneyline | 1.20 | moved down 1.10 |
| SPO moneyline | 4.05 | moved up 5.20 |
| Total points | 165.5 | moved up 168.5 |
| BEN spread | −9.5 | moved down −10.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
LPB standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ovarense |
5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 409 | 370 | +39 |
| 2 |  FC Porto |
5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 467 | 430 | +37 |
| 3 | Benfica |
5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 437 | 375 | +62 |
| 4 |  Braga |
5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 457 | 396 | +61 |
| 5 |  Oliveirense |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 375 | 363 | +12 |
| 6 | Sporting CP |
5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 400 | 405 | −5 |
| 7 |  Vitoria |
4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 300 | 328 | −28 |
| 8 |  CD Povoa |
4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 297 | 291 | +6 |
| 9 |  CAB Madeira |
5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 431 | 446 | −15 |
| 10 |  CA Queluz |
4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 356 | 375 | −19 |
| 11 |  Portimonense |
5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 380 | 443 | −63 |
| 12 |  Esgueira |
5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 388 | 475 | −87 |
- Quarter-finals
- Relegation - Proliga
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Benfica host Sporting CP in the LPB on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.