Benfica vs Oliveirense Prediction & Odds

LPB Saturday, October 17, 2026Sat, Oct 17 Start12:00ET Round 3

BenficaHome · 4-1 · 3rd · 1.11

9221242621

OliveirenseAway · 3-1 · 5th · 3.90

6713191817

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Benfica 21 24 26 21

Oliveirense 13 19 18 17

FT Pavilhão Fidelidade · PortugalPavilhão Fidelidade · Round 3

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

OLI +16.5 1.36 71%

Oliveirense +16.5 on the spread edge +1.0%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost OLI +16.5 1.36 Oliveirense +16.5 on the spread Confidence71% model 71.0% · market 70.0% edge +1.0%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 66%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.11 55.9% 72.7% −16.8% 56% Won

Total points O160.5 1.42 72.1% 64.9% +7.2% 72% Lost

Point spread OLI +16.5 1.36 71.0% 70.0% +1.0% 71% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Benfica9289

Oliveirense6782

Total 171 actual 159

Winning margin BEN by 7 actual BEN by 25

Chance to win BEN 65% BEN won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Benfica9289

Oliveirense6782

Total 171 Margin BEN by 7 Win BEN 65% Actual 159 · BEN won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 6+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Benfica large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Oliveirense

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Benfica vs Oliveirense

Benfica Oliveirense

Last 11 and 29 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Benfica 3-2

Oct 14: Benfica 96, Denizli Basket 91. Won. Odds: Benfica 2.18, Denizli Basket 1.42.
Oct 11: FC Porto 93, Benfica 86. Lost. Odds: FC Porto 1.75, Benfica 1.95.
Oct 7: Bakken Bears 81, Benfica 91. Won. Odds: Bakken Bears 1.97, Benfica 1.78.
Oct 3: Benfica 84, Sporting CP 71. Won. Odds: Benfica 1.10, Sporting CP 5.20.
Sep 17: Benfica 88, Vechta 98. Lost. Odds: Benfica 2.84, Vechta 1.40.

Oliveirense 2-3

Oct 3: Portimonense 82, Oliveirense 91. Won. Odds: Portimonense 5.10, Oliveirense 1.13.
May 28: Oliveirense 78, Benfica 86. Lost. No odds on record.
May 23: Benfica 86, Oliveirense 61. Lost. No odds on record.
May 21: Benfica 98, Oliveirense 76. Lost. No odds on record.
May 16: Ovarense 65, Oliveirense 69. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
BEN moneyline	1.15	moved down 1.11
OLI moneyline	4.60	moved down 3.90
Total points	167.5	moved up 168.5
BEN spread	−9.5	moved down −10.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

LPB standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Ovarense	5	4	1	9	409	370	+39
2	FC Porto	5	4	1	9	467	430	+37
3	Benfica	5	4	1	9	437	375	+62
4	Braga	5	4	1	9	457	396	+61
5	Oliveirense	4	3	1	7	375	363	+12
6	Sporting CP	5	2	3	7	400	405	−5
7	Vitoria	4	2	2	6	300	328	−28
8	CD Povoa	4	2	2	6	297	291	+6
9	CAB Madeira	5	1	4	6	431	446	−15
10	CA Queluz	4	2	2	6	356	375	−19
11	Portimonense	5	0	5	5	380	443	−63
12	Esgueira	5	0	5	5	388	475	−87

Quarter-finals
Relegation - Proliga

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Benfica host Oliveirense in the LPB on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.