Benfica vs Denizli Basket prediction
Benfica
28
22
27
19
Denizli Basket
23
22
17
29
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 60%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Benfica9689Denizli Basket9185Benfica9689Denizli Basket9185Total 174 Margin BEN by 4 Win BEN 57% Actual 187 · BEN won
Benfica
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Denizli Basket
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Benfica vs Denizli Basket
Benfica
Denizli Basket
Last 11 games each with full stats · all competitions
Benfica at home, last 6 games · Denizli Basket away, last 7
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Last five games
Benfica
3-2 - Oct 11: FC Porto 93, Benfica 86. Lost. Odds: FC Porto 1.75, Benfica 1.95.
- Oct 7: Bakken Bears 81, Benfica 91. Won. Odds: Bakken Bears 1.97, Benfica 1.78.
- Oct 3: Benfica 84, Sporting CP 71. Won. Odds: Benfica 1.10, Sporting CP 5.20.
- Sep 17: Benfica 88, Vechta 98. Lost. Odds: Benfica 2.84, Vechta 1.40.
- Sep 15: Benfica 87, Geneva Lions 78. Won. Odds: Benfica 1.14, Geneva Lions 5.05.
Denizli Basket
2-3 - Oct 11: Anadolu Efes 85, Denizli Basket 76. Lost. Odds: Anadolu Efes 1.11, Denizli Basket 6.03.
- Oct 6: Denizli Basket 83, BC Prievidza 69. Won. Odds: Denizli Basket 1.10, BC Prievidza 6.15.
- Oct 3: Denizli Basket 101, Tofas 87. Won. Odds: Denizli Basket 2.23, Tofas 1.63.
- Sep 26: Petkim Spor 85, Denizli Basket 81. Lost. Odds: Petkim Spor 1.43, Denizli Basket 2.76.
- Sep 15: Vechta 101, Denizli Basket 98. Lost. Odds: Vechta 1.30, Denizli Basket 3.25.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Benfica dropped from 3.14 to 2.18 since they were first published.
- Net rating difference of 16.1 — Benfica +10.3 per 100 possessions, Denizli Basket −5.8.
- Different pace — Benfica averaged 80.4 possessions per game, Denizli Basket 74.0.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| BEN moneyline | 3.14 | moved down 2.18 |
| DEN moneyline | 1.33 | moved up 1.42 |
| Total points | 169.5 | 169.5 |
| BEN spread | +5.5 | moved down +4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
FIBA Europe Cup standings
Regular Season · Group G
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 375 | 348 | +27 |
| 2 |  Bakken Bears |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 333 | 330 | +3 |
| 3 |  Geneva Lions |
4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 347 | 331 | +16 |
| 4 |  Denizli Basket |
4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 340 | 335 | +5 |
| 5 |  BC Prievidza |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 338 | 348 | −10 |
| 6 |  Landau Lions |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 349 | 390 | −41 |
- Second stage
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Benfica host Denizli Basket in the FIBA Europe Cup on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.