Bayern vs Virtus Bologna Prediction & Odds

EuroLeague Thursday, October 8, 2026Thu, Oct 8 Start14:00ET Round 4

BayernHome · 2-7 · 18th · 1.41

8721222519

Virtus BolognaAway · 4-5 · 13th · 2.92

9435172319

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Bayern 21 22 25 19

Virtus Bologna 35 17 23 19

FT BMW ParkBMW Park · Round 4

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

BAY +3.5 1.24 85%

Bayern +3.5 on the spread edge −2.0%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost BAY +3.5 1.24 Bayern +3.5 on the spread Confidence85% model 71.1% · market 73.1% edge −2.0%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 85%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.41 69.6% 67.6% +2.0% 85% Lost

Total points O155.5 1.17 74.6% 73.1% +1.5% 85% Won

Point spread BAY +3.5 1.24 71.1% 73.1% −2.0% 85% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Bayern8793

Virtus Bologna9482

Total 175 actual 181

Winning margin BAY by 11 actual VIR by 7

Chance to win BAY 80% VIR won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Bayern8793

Virtus Bologna9482

Total 175 Margin BAY by 11 Win BAY 80% Actual 181 · VIR won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 6+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Bayern large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Virtus Bologna

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Bayern vs Virtus Bologna

Bayern Virtus Bologna

Last 16 and 15 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Bayern 3-2

Oct 4: Bayern 113, Oldenburg 60. Won. Odds: Bayern 1.10, Oldenburg 6.45.
Oct 2: Bayern 84, Partizan Mozzart Bet 86. Lost. Odds: Bayern 1.53, Partizan Mozzart Bet 2.54.
Sep 29: Fenerbahce 100, Bayern 76. Lost. Odds: Fenerbahce 1.28, Bayern 3.58.
Sep 26: Bayern 95, Alba Berlin 61. Won. Odds: Bayern 1.14, Alba Berlin 5.38.
Sep 24: Hapoel Tel Aviv 84, Bayern 86. Won. Odds: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.33, Bayern 3.29.

Virtus Bologna 3-2

Oct 4: Virtus Bologna 98, Maxima Roma 89. Won. Odds: Virtus Bologna 1.26, Maxima Roma 3.62.
Oct 1: Virtus Bologna 96, Olympiacos 94. Won. Odds: Virtus Bologna 4.50, Olympiacos 1.20.
Sep 29: Olimpia Milano 87, Virtus Bologna 85. Lost. Odds: Olimpia Milano 1.37, Virtus Bologna 3.08.
Sep 27: Varese 69, Virtus Bologna 90. Won. Odds: Varese 2.25, Virtus Bologna 1.60.
Sep 25: Fenerbahce 78, Virtus Bologna 68. Lost. Odds: Fenerbahce 1.15, Virtus Bologna 5.30.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
BAY moneyline	1.35	moved up 1.41
VIR moneyline	3.00	moved down 2.92
Total points	166.5	moved up 172.5
BAY spread	−6.5	−6.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

EuroLeague standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Panathinaikos	9	7	2	.778	761	675	+86
2	Olympiacos	9	7	2	.778	790	739	+51
3	Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet	9	6	3	.667	763	683	+80
4	Real Madrid	9	6	3	.667	866	792	+74
5	Valencia	9	6	3	.667	867	806	+61
6	Hapoel Tel Aviv	9	6	3	.667	831	786	+45
7	Fenerbahce	9	6	3	.667	719	689	+30
8	Barcelona	9	6	3	.667	809	784	+25
9	Dubai	9	6	3	.667	787	766	+21
10	Zalgiris Kaunas	9	5	4	.556	773	756	+17
11	Besiktas	9	4	5	.444	810	826	−16
12	Partizan Mozzart Bet	9	4	5	.444	696	715	−19
13	Virtus Bologna	9	4	5	.444	781	802	−21
14	Anadolu Efes	9	4	5	.444	752	776	−24
15	Lyon-Villeurbanne	9	4	5	.444	788	831	−43
16	Paris	9	3	6	.333	795	836	−41
17	Maccabi Tel Aviv	9	2	7	.222	780	852	−72
18	Bayern	9	2	7	.222	769	850	−81
19	Olimpia Milano	9	1	8	.111	738	812	−74
20	Baskonia	9	1	8	.111	748	847	−99

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Play-in

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Bayern host Virtus Bologna in the EuroLeague on Thursday, October 8, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.