Barcelona vs Valencia Prediction & Odds — Oct 11

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ACB Sunday, October 11, 2026Sun, Oct 11 Start13:00ET Round 3

BarcelonaHome · 4-2 · 7th · 1.65

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ValenciaAway · 4-2 · 2nd · 2.07

8626142026

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Barcelona 19 20 29 21

Valencia 26 14 20 26

FT Palau Blaugrana · SpainPalau Blaugrana · Round 3

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

VAL +11.5 1.21 70%

Valencia +11.5 on the spread edge −2.2%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won VAL +11.5 1.21 Valencia +11.5 on the spread Confidence70% model 70.3% · market 72.5% edge −2.2%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 68%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.75 58.3% 60.3% −2.0% 59% Won

Total points O169.5 1.33 84.9% 70.3% +14.6% 74% Won

Point spread VAL +11.5 1.21 70.3% 72.5% −2.2% 70% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Barcelona8997

Valencia8693

Total 190 actual 175

Winning margin BAR by 4 actual BAR by 3

Chance to win BAR 58% BAR won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Barcelona8997

Valencia8693

Total 190 Margin BAR by 4 Win BAR 58% Actual 175 · BAR won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 7+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Barcelona large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Valencia

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

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Shooting

Barcelona vs Valencia

Barcelona Valencia

Last 17 and 16 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Barcelona 2-3

Oct 9: Barcelona 81, Zalgiris Kaunas 88. Lost. Odds: Barcelona 1.76, Zalgiris Kaunas 2.07.
Oct 4: Murcia 100, Barcelona 94. Lost. Odds: Murcia 1.92, Barcelona 1.85.
Oct 2: Besiktas 82, Barcelona 95. Won. Odds: Besiktas 1.78, Barcelona 2.05.
Sep 29: Dubai 94, Barcelona 87. Lost. Odds: Dubai 1.34, Barcelona 3.20.
Sep 26: Barcelona 119, Leyma Coruna 101. Won. Odds: Barcelona 1.10, Leyma Coruna 6.34.

Valencia 4-1

Oct 8: Valencia 93, Hapoel Tel Aviv 82. Won. Odds: Valencia 1.68, Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.20.
Oct 4: Basket Zaragoza 82, Valencia 97. Won. Odds: Basket Zaragoza 2.52, Valencia 1.50.
Oct 2: Lyon-Villeurbanne 92, Valencia 105. Won. Odds: Lyon-Villeurbanne 2.45, Valencia 1.56.
Sep 29: Valencia 111, Baskonia 88. Won. Odds: Valencia 1.27, Baskonia 3.71.
Sep 27: Valencia 100, Forca Lleida 105. Lost. Odds: Valencia 1.11, Forca Lleida 6.12.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
BAR moneyline	1.57	moved up 1.65
VAL moneyline	2.27	moved down 2.07
Total points	175.5	moved up 186.5
BAR spread	−3.5	moved up −2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

ACB standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	12	654	526	+128
2	Valencia	6	4	2	10	594	523	+71
3	Baskonia	6	4	2	10	567	497	+70
4	Tenerife	6	4	2	10	527	479	+48
5	Breogan	6	4	2	10	628	592	+36
6	Basket Zaragoza	6	4	2	10	552	523	+29
7	Barcelona	6	4	2	10	582	570	+12
8	Bilbao	6	4	2	10	557	556	+1
9	Unicaja	6	3	3	9	530	507	+23
10	Murcia	6	3	3	9	560	563	−3
11	Obradoiro CAB	6	3	3	9	533	576	−43
12	Basquet Girona	6	3	3	9	543	594	−51
13	San Pablo Burgos	6	2	4	8	528	525	+3
14	Joventut Badalona	6	2	4	8	551	549	+2
15	Leyma Coruna	6	2	4	8	540	599	−59
16	MoraBanc Andorra	6	1	5	7	507	579	−72
17	Forca Lleida	6	1	5	7	557	641	−84
18	Manresa	6	0	6	6	506	617	−111

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Relegation - Primera FEB

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Barcelona host Valencia in the ACB on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.