Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Prediction & Odds — Oct 28

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NBA Wednesday, October 28, 2026Wed, Oct 28 Start19:00ET

Atlanta HawksHome · 3-4 · 2nd · 1.68

11725312932

Miami HeatAway · 2-4 · 7th · 2.23

12934352832

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Atlanta Hawks 25 31 29 32

Miami Heat 34 35 28 32

FT State Farm Arena · USAState Farm Arena

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

ATL +7.5 1.29 85%

Atlanta Hawks +7.5 on the spread edge −2.1%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost ATL +7.5 1.29 Atlanta Hawks +7.5 on the spread Confidence85% model 71.7% · market 73.8% edge −2.1%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 81%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.68 62.0% 58.4% +3.6% 74% Lost

Total points U251.5 1.37 76.5% 73.8% +2.7% 85% Won

Point spread ATL +7.5 1.29 71.7% 73.8% −2.1% 85% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Atlanta Hawks117121

Miami Heat129116

Total 237 actual 246

Winning margin ATL by 5 actual MIA by 12

Chance to win ATL 62% MIA won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Atlanta Hawks117121

Miami Heat129116

Total 237 Margin ATL by 5 Win ATL 62% Actual 246 · MIA won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 17+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Atlanta Hawks large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Miami Heat

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks Miami Heat

Last 7 and 6 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Atlanta Hawks 3-2

Oct 26: Houston Rockets 120, Atlanta Hawks 110. Lost. Odds: Houston Rockets 1.52, Atlanta Hawks 2.62.
Oct 24: Atlanta Hawks 114, Houston Rockets 121. Lost. Odds: Atlanta Hawks 1.90, Houston Rockets 1.92.
Oct 23: Charlotte Hornets 81, Atlanta Hawks 128. Won. Odds: Charlotte Hornets 2.15, Atlanta Hawks 1.74.
Oct 21: Orlando Magic 125, Atlanta Hawks 132. Won. Odds: Orlando Magic 1.75, Atlanta Hawks 2.14.
Oct 16: Dallas Mavericks 111, Atlanta Hawks 135. Won. Odds: Dallas Mavericks 1.81, Atlanta Hawks 1.89.

Miami Heat 0-5

Oct 26: Miami Heat 109, Dallas Mavericks 113. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 1.36, Dallas Mavericks 3.25.
Oct 24: Charlotte Hornets 115, Miami Heat 110. Lost. Odds: Charlotte Hornets 2.39, Miami Heat 1.61.
Oct 23: Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 2.04, Detroit Pistons 1.81.
Oct 21: Miami Heat 106, Minnesota Timberwolves 131. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 1.72, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.98.
Oct 16: Orlando Magic 136, Miami Heat 115. Lost. Odds: Orlando Magic 1.28, Miami Heat 2.95.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
ATL moneyline	1.64	moved up 1.68
MIA moneyline	2.22	moved up 2.23
Total points	238.5	moved up 241.5
ATL spread	−3.5	moved up −2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBA standings

Pre-season · Eastern Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Boston Celtics	4	4	0	1.000	507	432	+75
2	Atlanta Hawks	5	4	1	.800	613	586	+27
3	Brooklyn Nets	4	3	1	.750	497	464	+33
4	Orlando Magic	4	3	1	.750	495	468	+27
5	Detroit Pistons	4	3	1	.750	474	452	+22
6	Chicago Bulls	5	3	2	.600	610	574	+36
7	Miami Heat	5	3	2	.600	640	612	+28
8	Washington Wizards	4	2	2	.500	453	455	−2
9	Toronto Raptors	5	2	3	.400	612	584	+28
10	Milwaukee Bucks	5	2	3	.400	547	599	−52
11	Cleveland Cavaliers	3	1	2	.333	348	361	−13
12	Indiana Pacers	4	1	3	.250	479	473	+6
13	Philadelphia 76ers	4	1	3	.250	454	480	−26
14	Charlotte Hornets	4	1	3	.250	386	444	−58
15	New York Knicks	5	1	4	.200	530	621	−91

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Atlanta Hawks host Miami Heat in the NBA on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.