Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty prediction
Atlanta Dream
21
16
32
23
New York Liberty
24
16
15
27
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Atlanta Dream9290New York Liberty8290Atlanta Dream9290New York Liberty8290Total 180 Win NYL 51% Actual 174 · ATL won
Atlanta Dream
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New York Liberty
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream
New York Liberty
Last 30 games each with full stats · all competitions
Atlanta Dream at home, last 28 games · New York Liberty away, last 24
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Atlanta Dream 4, New York Liberty 1.
- Average total 177.6 points per meeting
- Over 172.5 3 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting ATL by 2 Oct 9, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 9, 2026 WNBA New York Liberty 83–85 Atlanta Dream 168 pts
- Oct 7, 2026 WNBA Atlanta Dream 101–98 OT New York Liberty 199 pts · OT
- Sep 23, 2026 WNBA New York Liberty 65–83 Atlanta Dream 148 pts
- Sep 21, 2026 WNBA New York Liberty 84–95 Atlanta Dream 179 pts
- Jun 11, 2026 WNBA Atlanta Dream 90–104 New York Liberty 194 pts
Last five games
Atlanta Dream
5-0 - Sep 30: Washington Mystics 75, Atlanta Dream 93. Won. Odds: Washington Mystics 2.30, Atlanta Dream 1.65.
- Sep 27: Atlanta Dream 92, Washington Mystics 77. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 23: New York Liberty 65, Atlanta Dream 83. Won. Odds: New York Liberty 2.55, Atlanta Dream 1.50.
- Sep 21: New York Liberty 84, Atlanta Dream 95. Won. Odds: New York Liberty 1.97, Atlanta Dream 1.80.
- Sep 19: Atlanta Dream 106, Chicago Sky 81. Won. Odds: Atlanta Dream 1.10, Chicago Sky 6.27.
New York Liberty
3-2 - Sep 29: New York Liberty 87, Minnesota Lynx 71. Won. Odds: New York Liberty 2.35, Minnesota Lynx 1.57.
- Sep 23: New York Liberty 65, Atlanta Dream 83. Lost. Odds: New York Liberty 2.55, Atlanta Dream 1.50.
- Sep 21: New York Liberty 84, Atlanta Dream 95. Lost. Odds: New York Liberty 1.97, Atlanta Dream 1.80.
- Sep 20: Toronto Tempo 69, New York Liberty 106. Won. Odds: Toronto Tempo 6.06, New York Liberty 1.11.
- Sep 18: Minnesota Lynx 81, New York Liberty 93. Won. Odds: Minnesota Lynx 1.41, New York Liberty 2.83.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 7-game winning streak for Atlanta Dream coming into this game.
- Net rating difference of 6.5 — Atlanta Dream +9.8 per 100 possessions, New York Liberty +3.3.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Atlanta Dream.
- 177.6 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 172.5.
- 1st vs 4th in the WNBA standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ATL moneyline | 1.62 | moved down 1.52 |
| NYL moneyline | 2.35 | moved up 2.46 |
| Total points | 173.5 | moved down 172.5 |
| ATL spread | −4.5 | −4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
WNBA standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Dream |
44 | 30 | 14 | .682 | 4019 | 3717 | +302 |
| 2 |  Washington Mystics |
44 | 28 | 16 | .636 | 3696 | 3640 | +56 |
| 3 |  Indiana Fever |
44 | 28 | 16 | .636 | 4222 | 3979 | +243 |
| 4 | New York Liberty |
44 | 26 | 18 | .591 | 3941 | 3802 | +139 |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky |
44 | 16 | 28 | .364 | 3818 | 3989 | −171 |
| 6 |  Connecticut Sun |
44 | 11 | 33 | .250 | 3470 | 3875 | −405 |
| 7 |  Toronto Tempo |
44 | 11 | 33 | .250 | 3770 | 4152 | −382 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Atlanta Dream host New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.