Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Prediction & Odds — Sep 17

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WNBA Thursday, September 17, 2026Thu, Sep 17 Start19:30ET

Atlanta DreamHome · 30-14 · 1st · 1.08

10322233127

Connecticut SunAway · 11-33 · 6th · 7.21

5917181113

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Atlanta Dream 22 23 31 27

Connecticut Sun 17 18 11 13

FT Gateway Center Arena · USAGateway Center Arena

Best tip of the game

Total points Won

U174.5 1.50 50%

Under 174.5 points edge −0.9%

Best tip of the game Total points · Won U174.5 1.50 Under 174.5 points Confidence50% model 59.9% · market 60.8% edge −0.9%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 50%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.08 79.1% 85.5% −6.4% 50% Won

Total points U174.5 1.50 59.9% 60.8% −0.9% 50% Won

Point spread CON +14.5 1.86 51.7% 50.0% +1.7% 50% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Atlanta Dream10396

Connecticut Sun5982

Total 178 actual 162

Winning margin ATL by 14 actual ATL by 44

Chance to win ATL 79% ATL won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Atlanta Dream10396

Connecticut Sun5982

Total 178 Margin ATL by 14 Win ATL 79% Actual 162 · ATL won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 15+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Atlanta Dream large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Connecticut Sun

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun

Atlanta Dream Connecticut Sun

Last 30 games each with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Atlanta Dream 4-1

Aug 30: Atlanta Dream 89, Minnesota Lynx 81. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 28: Atlanta Dream 83, Portland Fire 101. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 24: Los Angeles Sparks 71, Atlanta Dream 78. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 22: Phoenix Mercury 89, Atlanta Dream 99. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 20: Los Angeles Sparks 88, Atlanta Dream 124. Won. No odds on record.

Connecticut Sun 1-4

Aug 30: Dallas Wings 97, Connecticut Sun 71. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 28: Indiana Fever 111, Connecticut Sun 91. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 26: Connecticut Sun 64, Golden State Valkyries 89. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 25: Connecticut Sun 87, Chicago Sky 81. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 22: Los Angeles Sparks 77, Connecticut Sun 68. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
ATL moneyline	1.07	moved up 1.08
CON moneyline	7.80	moved down 7.21
Total points	169.5	moved down 168.5
ATL spread	−14.5	moved down −17.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

WNBA standings

Regular Season · Eastern Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Atlanta Dream	44	30	14	.682	4019	3717	+302
2	Washington Mystics	44	28	16	.636	3696	3640	+56
3	Indiana Fever	44	28	16	.636	4222	3979	+243
4	New York Liberty	44	26	18	.591	3941	3802	+139
5	Chicago Sky	44	16	28	.364	3818	3989	−171
6	Connecticut Sun	44	11	33	.250	3470	3875	−405
7	Toronto Tempo	44	11	33	.250	3770	4152	−382

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Atlanta Dream host Connecticut Sun in the WNBA on Thursday, September 17, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.