Atenas vs Aguada prediction
Atenas
12
19
9
17
Aguada
27
21
11
25
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 56%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Atenas5783Aguada8480Atenas5783Aguada8480Total 163 Margin ATE by 3 Win ATE 59% Actual 141 · AGU won
Atenas
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Aguada
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Atenas vs Aguada
Atenas
Aguada
Last 6 and 27 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Last five games
Atenas
3-2 - Oct 26: Union Atletica 73, Atenas 82. Won. Odds: Union Atletica 1.11, Atenas 4.40.
- Oct 23: Atenas 80, Lanus 69. Won. Odds: Atenas 1.30, Lanus 3.25.
- Oct 22: Atenas 77, Nacional 90. Lost. Odds: Atenas 6.50, Nacional 1.04.
- Oct 20: Malvin 77, Atenas 66. Lost. Odds: Malvin 1.06, Atenas 5.80.
- Oct 12: Atenas 91, Ferro 86. Won. Odds: Atenas 1.36, Ferro 2.97.
Aguada
2-3 - Oct 27: Larranaga 91, Aguada 75. Lost. Odds: Larranaga 5.20, Aguada 1.08.
- Oct 23: Aguada 66, Union Atletica 63. Won. Odds: Aguada 1.16, Union Atletica 3.85.
- Oct 20: Nacional 81, Aguada 83. Won. Odds: Nacional 1.44, Aguada 2.40.
- Jun 22: Aguada 92, Penarol 107. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jun 19: Penarol 80, Aguada 71. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Aguada dropped from 1.31 to 1.20 since they were first published.
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Atenas, 2 for Aguada.
- Over/under moved down from 166.5 to 164.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 12.5 — Atenas −10.6 per 100 possessions, Aguada +1.9.
- 5th vs 4th in the Liga Uruguaya standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ATE moneyline | 3.00 | moved up 3.50 |
| AGU moneyline | 1.31 | moved down 1.20 |
| Total points | 166.5 | moved down 164.5 |
| ATE spread | +6.5 | moved up +7.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Liga Uruguaya standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bigua |
4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 374 | 333 | +41 |
| 2 |  Goes |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 375 | 347 | +28 |
| 3 |  Malvin |
4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 308 | 335 | −27 |
| 4 | Aguada |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 308 | 292 | +16 |
| 5 | Atenas |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 282 | 324 | −42 |
| 6 |  Union Atletica |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 313 | 323 | −10 |
| 7 |  Urunday |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 337 | 341 | −4 |
| 8 |  Penarol |
2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 192 | 155 | +37 |
| 9 |  Nacional |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 281 | 284 | −3 |
| 10 |  Hebraica y Macabi |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 244 | 253 | −9 |
| 11 |  Defensor |
2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 165 | 153 | +12 |
| 12 |  Larranaga |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 314 | 353 | −39 |
- Winners stage
- Losers stage
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss. The table follows the league’s own order. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Atenas host Aguada in the Liga Uruguaya on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.