Al Najma vs Al Ahli prediction
Al Najma
16
20
15
16
Al Ahli
11
17
18
8
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 58%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Al Najma6781Al Ahli5477Al Najma6781Al Ahli5477Total 158 Margin ALX by 4 Win ALX 61% Actual 121 · ALX won
Al Najma vs Al Ahli
Al Najma
Al Ahli
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Al Najma 2, Al Ahli 1.
- Average total 147.3 points per meeting
- Over 151.5 1 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting ALX by 3 Jan 27, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 27, 2026 Premier League Al Ahli 79–82 Al Najma 161 pts
- Dec 24, 2025 Premier League Al Ahli 67–63 Al Najma 130 pts
- Dec 12, 2025 Premier League Al Najma 77–74 Al Ahli 151 pts
Last five games
Al Najma
2-3 - Oct 12: Al Najma 75, Al Ittihad 70. After overtime. Won. Odds: Al Najma 1.07, Al Ittihad 6.40.
- Oct 4: Nuwaidrad 78, Al Najma 97. Won. Odds: Nuwaidrad 4.70, Al Najma 1.14.
- Apr 4: Al Najma 71, Al Manama 75. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 1: Al Manama 95, Al Najma 92. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 29: Al Najma 76, Al Manama 80. Lost. No odds on record.
Al Ahli
2-3 - Oct 13: Al Ahli 77, Nuwaidrad 69. Won. No odds on record.
- Oct 13: Al Ahli 68, Al Gharafa 76. Lost. No odds on record.
- Oct 6: Al Ittihad 59, Al Ahli 66. Won. Odds: Al Ittihad 4.90, Al Ahli 1.13.
- Apr 1: Al Muharraq 102, Al Ahli 63. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 30: Al Ahli 73, Al Sadd 80. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Al Najma dropped from 1.39 to 1.19 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 148.5 to 151.5 since it was first published.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Al Najma.
- 147.3 points per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 151.5.
- 2nd vs 4th in the Premier League standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ALX moneyline | 1.39 | moved down 1.19 |
| ALX moneyline | 2.72 | moved up 3.95 |
| Total points | 148.5 | moved up 151.5 |
| ALX spread | −6.5 | moved down −9.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Premier League standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Muharraq |
4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 443 | 284 | +159 |
| 2 | Al Najma |
4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 320 | 278 | +42 |
| 3 |  Al Hala |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 355 | 303 | +52 |
| 4 | Al Ahli |
4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 297 | 293 | +4 |
| 5 |  Al Ittihad |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 276 | 327 | −51 |
| 6 |  Sitra Club |
4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 304 | 358 | −54 |
| 7 |  ISSA Town |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 254 | 316 | −62 |
| 8 |  Nuwaidrad |
4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 288 | 327 | −39 |
| 9 |  Al Manama |
2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 182 | 167 | +15 |
| 10 |  Samaheej |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 217 | 283 | −66 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Al Najma host Al Ahli in the Premier League on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.