Aguada vs Union Atletica Prediction & Odds

Liga Uruguaya Friday, October 23, 2026Fri, Oct 23 Start20:30ET

AguadaHome · 3-1 · 4th · 1.16

6622201410

Union AtleticaAway · 1-3 · 6th · 3.85

6315221412

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Aguada 22 20 14 10

Union Atletica 15 22 14 12

FT Aguada · UruguayAguada

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Won

1 1.16 85%

Aguada to win edge −4.9%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Won 1 1.16 Aguada to win Confidence85% model 70.6% · market 75.5% edge −4.9%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 63%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.16 70.6% 75.5% −4.9% 85% Won

Total points O168.5 1.75 51.3% 49.0% +2.3% 52% Lost

Point spread UNI +8.5 1.87 41.9% 48.8% −6.9% 51% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Aguada6688

Union Atletica6381

Total 169 actual 129

Winning margin AGU by 7 actual AGU by 3

Chance to win AGU 71% AGU won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Aguada6688

Union Atletica6381

Total 169 Margin AGU by 7 Win AGU 71% Actual 129 · AGU won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Aguada large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Union Atletica

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Aguada vs Union Atletica

Aguada Union Atletica

Last 27 and 28 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Aguada 3-2

Oct 20: Nacional 81, Aguada 83. Won. Odds: Nacional 1.44, Aguada 2.40.
Jun 22: Aguada 92, Penarol 107. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 19: Penarol 80, Aguada 71. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 16: Aguada 92, Penarol 81. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 12: Aguada 78, Penarol 71. Won. No odds on record.

Union Atletica 3-2

Oct 21: Larranaga 78, Union Atletica 94. Won. Odds: Larranaga 1.70, Union Atletica 1.98.
Mar 23: Union Atletica 95, Cordon 71. Won. No odds on record.
Mar 20: Bigua 81, Union Atletica 76. Lost. No odds on record.
Mar 17: Urunday 89, Union Atletica 75. Lost. No odds on record.
Mar 13: Union Atletica 94, Goes 84. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
AGU moneyline	1.18	moved down 1.16
UNI moneyline	4.00	moved down 3.85
Total points	168.5	moved up 169.5
AGU spread	−8.5	moved down −9.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Liga Uruguaya standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Bigua	4	4	0	8	374	333	+41
2	Goes	4	3	1	7	375	347	+28
3	Malvin	4	2	2	6	308	335	−27
4	Aguada	4	3	1	7	308	292	+16
5	Atenas	4	1	3	5	282	324	−42
6	Union Atletica	4	1	3	5	313	323	−10
7	Urunday	4	1	3	5	337	341	−4
8	Penarol	2	2	0	4	192	155	+37
9	Nacional	3	1	2	4	281	284	−3
10	Hebraica y Macabi	3	1	2	4	244	253	−9
11	Defensor	2	1	1	3	165	153	+12
12	Larranaga	4	1	3	5	314	353	−39

Winners stage
Losers stage

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss. The table follows the league’s own order. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Aguada host Union Atletica in the Liga Uruguaya on Friday, October 23, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.