Adelaide vs New Zealand Breakers prediction
Adelaide
19
23
15
12
New Zealand Breakers
23
25
12
28
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 76%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Adelaide6991New Zealand Breakers8895Adelaide6991New Zealand Breakers8895Total 186 Margin NZB by 4 Win NZB 62% Actual 157 · NZB won
Adelaide
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New Zealand Breakers
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Adelaide vs New Zealand Breakers
Adelaide
New Zealand Breakers
Last 10 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Adelaide 4, New Zealand Breakers 1.
- Average total 198.4 points per meeting
- Over 185.5 3 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting ADE by 7 Oct 30, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 30, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 101–108 Adelaide 209 pts
- Feb 22, 2026 NBL Adelaide 107–111 New Zealand Breakers 218 pts
- Feb 14, 2026 NBL Adelaide 92–89 New Zealand Breakers 181 pts
- Jan 23, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 110–112 OT Adelaide 222 pts · OT
- Nov 6, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 79–83 Adelaide 162 pts
Last five games
Adelaide
2-3 - Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
- Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
- Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.
- Apr 5: Sydney 113, Adelaide 101. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
New Zealand Breakers
3-2 - Sep 30: New Zealand Breakers 98, Cairns Taipans 75. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 1.51, Cairns Taipans 2.48.
- Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 22: Brisbane Bullets 88, New Zealand Breakers 85. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.97, New Zealand Breakers 1.81.
- Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
- Feb 22: Adelaide 107, New Zealand Breakers 111. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 3 days off for New Zealand Breakers, 1 for Adelaide.
- Over/under moved up from 181.5 to 185.5 since it was first published.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Adelaide.
- 198.4 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 185.5.
- 7th vs 9th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ADE moneyline | 1.52 | moved down 1.51 |
| NZB moneyline | 2.37 | moved up 2.64 |
| Total points | 181.5 | moved up 185.5 |
| ADE spread | −4.5 | −4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 | Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Adelaide host New Zealand Breakers in the NBL on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.