Adelaide vs Melbourne United prediction
Adelaide
21
17
21
32
Melbourne United
31
25
20
20
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 56%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Adelaide9188Melbourne United9685Adelaide9188Melbourne United9685Total 173 Margin ADE by 3 Win ADE 58% Actual 187 · MEL won
Adelaide
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Melbourne United
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Adelaide vs Melbourne United
Adelaide
Melbourne United
Last 10 games each with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Adelaide 3, Melbourne United 1.
- Average total 183.8 points per meeting
- Over 181.5 2 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting ADE by 2 Sep 19, 2026
Meetings
- Sep 19, 2026 NBL Melbourne United 95–97 Adelaide 192 pts
- Feb 7, 2026 NBL Melbourne United 76–87 Adelaide 163 pts
- Dec 12, 2025 NBL Adelaide 114–105 OT Melbourne United 219 pts · OT
- Oct 25, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 81–80 Adelaide 161 pts
Last five games
Adelaide
2-3 - Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
- Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
- Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
- Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.
Melbourne United
1-4 - Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
- Oct 1: Tasmania JackJumpers 84, Melbourne United 82. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 3.00, Melbourne United 1.36.
- Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.
- Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.
- Mar 7: Perth 95, Melbourne United 77. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Melbourne United dropped from 1.78 to 1.54 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved down from 183.5 to 181.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 8.3 — Adelaide −3.0 per 100 possessions, Melbourne United +5.3.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Adelaide.
- 1-4 in the last five for Melbourne United.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ADE moneyline | 1.98 | moved up 2.40 |
| MEL moneyline | 1.78 | moved down 1.54 |
| Total points | 183.5 | moved down 181.5 |
| ADE spread | +1.5 | moved up +4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 | Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 | Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Adelaide host Melbourne United in the NBL on Wednesday, October 7, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.