Adelaide Lightning vs Townsville prediction
Adelaide Lightning
24
19
15
10
Townsville
17
23
19
27
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 67%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Adelaide Lightning6873Townsville8685Adelaide Lightning6873Townsville8685Total 158 Margin TOW by 12 Win TOW 76% Actual 154 · TOW won
Adelaide Lightning
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Townsville
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Adelaide Lightning vs Townsville
Adelaide Lightning
Townsville
Last 24 and 27 games with full stats · all competitions
Adelaide Lightning at home, last 12 games · Townsville away, last 15
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Adelaide Lightning 0, Townsville 3.
- Average total 159.3 points per meeting
- Over 160.5 1 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting TOW by 14 Jan 4, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 4, 2026 NBL Women Adelaide Lightning 69–83 Townsville 152 pts
- Nov 25, 2025 NBL Women Adelaide Lightning 64–90 Townsville 154 pts
- Nov 15, 2025 NBL Women Townsville 103–69 Adelaide Lightning 172 pts
Last five games
Adelaide Lightning
1-4 - Oct 17: Sydney 95, Adelaide Lightning 68. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.50, Adelaide Lightning 2.02.
- Feb 7: Adelaide Lightning 64, Southside 77. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jan 30: Southside 82, Adelaide Lightning 77. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jan 23: Geelong Venom 78, Adelaide Lightning 85. Won. No odds on record.
- Jan 20: Adelaide Lightning 61, Canberra Capitals 67. Lost. No odds on record.
Townsville
3-2 - Oct 17: Perth Lynx 86, Townsville 83. Lost. Odds: Perth Lynx 2.70, Townsville 1.27.
- Mar 1: Perth Lynx 105, Townsville 108. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 26: Townsville 88, Perth Lynx 79. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 22: Townsville 84, Southside 74. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 18: Southside 109, Townsville 89. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Adelaide Lightning coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Adelaide Lightning dropped from 5.25 to 3.85 since they were first published.
- 3-0 in the last 3 meetings for Townsville.
- Over/under moved up from 158.5 to 160.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 22.8 — Adelaide Lightning −12.5 per 100 possessions, Townsville +10.3.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ADE moneyline | 5.25 | moved down 3.85 |
| TOW moneyline | 1.10 | moved up 1.16 |
| Total points | 158.5 | moved up 160.5 |
| ADE spread | +13.5 | moved down +9.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL Women standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Perth Lynx |
2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 176 | 165 | +11 |
| 2 |  Sydney |
5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 429 | 381 | +48 |
| 3 |  Tasmania Jewels |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 273 | 266 | +7 |
| 4 |  Canberra Capitals |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 241 | 242 | −1 |
| 5 | Townsville |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 337 | 312 | +25 |
| 6 | Geelong Venom | 4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 309 | 319 | −10 |
| 7 | Adelaide Lightning |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 299 | 345 | −46 |
| 8 |  Southside |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 307 | 309 | −2 |
| 9 |  Bendigo |
3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 230 | 262 | −32 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Adelaide Lightning host Townsville in the NBL Women on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.