Adelaide Lightning vs Perth Lynx prediction
Adelaide Lightning
17
17
26
22
Perth Lynx
26
15
18
31
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 66%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Adelaide Lightning8272Perth Lynx9087Adelaide Lightning8272Perth Lynx9087Total 159 Margin PER by 15 Win PER 80% Actual 172 · PER won
Adelaide Lightning
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Perth Lynx
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Adelaide Lightning vs Perth Lynx
Adelaide Lightning
Perth Lynx
Last 24 and 28 games with full stats · all competitions
Adelaide Lightning at home, last 12 games · Perth Lynx away, last 14
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Adelaide Lightning 0, Perth Lynx 4.
- Average total 162.8 points per meeting
- Over 162.5 2 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting PER by 15 Jan 10, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 10, 2026 NBL Women Perth Lynx 80–65 Adelaide Lightning 145 pts
- Jan 2, 2026 NBL Women Perth Lynx 93–75 Adelaide Lightning 168 pts
- Dec 21, 2025 NBL Women Adelaide Lightning 82–109 Perth Lynx 191 pts
- Oct 19, 2025 NBL Women Adelaide Lightning 72–75 Perth Lynx 147 pts
Last five games
Adelaide Lightning
1-4 - Oct 20: Adelaide Lightning 68, Townsville 86. Lost. Odds: Adelaide Lightning 3.85, Townsville 1.16.
- Oct 17: Sydney 95, Adelaide Lightning 68. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.50, Adelaide Lightning 2.02.
- Feb 7: Adelaide Lightning 64, Southside 77. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jan 30: Southside 82, Adelaide Lightning 77. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jan 23: Geelong Venom 78, Adelaide Lightning 85. Won. No odds on record.
Perth Lynx
3-2 - Oct 17: Perth Lynx 86, Townsville 83. Won. Odds: Perth Lynx 2.70, Townsville 1.27.
- Mar 1: Perth Lynx 105, Townsville 108. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 26: Townsville 88, Perth Lynx 79. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 17: Bendigo 75, Perth Lynx 81. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Perth Lynx 86, Bendigo 76. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 4-game losing streak for Adelaide Lightning coming into this game.
- Rest advantage: 6 days off for Perth Lynx, 3 for Adelaide Lightning.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for Perth Lynx.
- Over/under moved down from 164.5 to 162.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 23.6 — Adelaide Lightning −12.5 per 100 possessions, Perth Lynx +11.1.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ADE moneyline | 2.88 | moved up 3.15 |
| PER moneyline | 1.33 | moved down 1.26 |
| Total points | 164.5 | moved down 162.5 |
| ADE spread | +7.5 | +7.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL Women standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perth Lynx |
2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 176 | 165 | +11 |
| 2 |  Sydney |
5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 429 | 381 | +48 |
| 3 |  Tasmania Jewels |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 273 | 266 | +7 |
| 4 |  Canberra Capitals |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 241 | 242 | −1 |
| 5 |  Townsville |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 337 | 312 | +25 |
| 6 | Geelong Venom | 4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 309 | 319 | −10 |
| 7 | Adelaide Lightning |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 299 | 345 | −46 |
| 8 |  Southside |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 307 | 309 | −2 |
| 9 |  Bendigo |
3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 230 | 262 | −32 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Adelaide Lightning host Perth Lynx in the NBL Women on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.