Abejas vs Freseros Prediction & Odds

LNBP Monday, September 21, 2026Mon, Sep 21 Start22:00ET Round 22

AbejasHome · 12-16 · 8th · 1.42

571712226

FreserosAway · 9-19 · 13th · 2.65

632325123

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Abejas 17 12 22 6

Freseros 23 25 12 3

FT Domo de la Feria · MexicoDomo de la Feria · Round 22

Best tip of the game

Total points Won

U175.5 1.85 63%

Under 175.5 points edge +12.9%

Best tip of the game Total points · Won U175.5 1.85 Under 175.5 points Confidence63% model 62.9% · market 50.0% edge +12.9%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 61%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.42 56.4% 57.4% −1.0% 63% Lost

Total points U175.5 1.85 62.9% 50.0% +12.9% 63% Won

Point spread FRE +3.5 1.91 53.0% 51.5% +1.5% 56% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Abejas5786

Freseros6384

Total 170 actual 120

Winning margin ABE by 2 actual FRE by 6

Chance to win ABE 56% FRE won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Abejas5786

Freseros6384

Total 170 Margin ABE by 2 Win ABE 56% Actual 120 · FRE won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Abejas large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Freseros

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Abejas vs Freseros

Abejas Freseros

Last 30 and 26 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Abejas 1-4

Sep 20: Abejas 97, Freseros 80. Won. Odds: Abejas 1.60, Freseros 2.20.
Sep 16: Lobos Plateados 80, Abejas 67. Lost. Odds: Lobos Plateados 1.53, Abejas 2.32.
Sep 15: Lobos Plateados 91, Abejas 87. Lost. Odds: Lobos Plateados 1.65, Abejas 2.12.
Sep 11: Abejas 74, Gambusinos 86. Lost. No odds on record.
Sep 10: Abejas 83, Gambusinos 87. Lost. No odds on record.

Freseros 2-3

Sep 20: Abejas 97, Freseros 80. Lost. Odds: Abejas 1.60, Freseros 2.20.
Sep 15: Freseros 63, Soles 92. Lost. Odds: Freseros 2.22, Soles 1.60.
Sep 14: Freseros 73, Soles 85. Lost. Odds: Freseros 2.02, Soles 1.70.
Sep 11: Lobos Plateados 86, Freseros 90. Won. No odds on record.
Sep 10: Lobos Plateados 71, Freseros 82. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
ABE moneyline	1.60	moved down 1.42
FRE moneyline	2.18	moved up 2.65
Total points	173.5	173.5
ABE spread · regulation	−3.5	moved down −4.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

LNBP standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Soles	28	21	7	49	2382	2090	+292
2	Astros	28	20	8	48	2473	2246	+227
3	Fuerza Regia	28	19	9	47	2512	2381	+131
4	Panteras	28	19	9	47	2477	2379	+98
5	Lobos Plateados	28	18	10	46	2366	2251	+115
6	Dorados	28	17	11	45	2409	2368	+41
7	Mineros	28	15	13	43	2411	2371	+40
8	Abejas	28	12	16	40	2389	2392	−3
9	Diablos Rojos	28	11	17	39	2293	2370	−77
10	Gambusinos	28	11	17	39	2233	2327	−94
11	Santos	28	11	17	39	2367	2497	−130
12	El Calor de Cancun	28	9	19	37	2276	2384	−108
13	Freseros	28	9	19	37	2379	2586	−207
14	Correcaminos	28	4	24	32	2309	2634	−325

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Abejas host Freseros in the LNBP on Monday, September 21, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.